Wagering ROI Calculator

Enter the bonus, the wagering multiplier, and the RTP of the game you plan to clear on. See what the bonus is actually worth — before you deposit.

The match value credited to your bonus balance (not the deposit).
Typical: 30x, 35x, 40x. Anything 60x-plus = trap.
Most slots: 94-97%. Live blackjack: ~99%.
Some bonuses cap withdrawable winnings. Set 0 if uncapped.

Results

Total required wagering$8,000
Expected house-edge cost$320
Expected bonus value (EV)$-120
Break-even probability54%
Verdict: borderline — play through only on a high-RTP slot.

How to read the numbers

Total required wagering is the sum of bets you must place before the bonus (and any winnings tied to it) become withdrawable. Formula: bonus × wagering multiplier. If you don't hit that number in bets, the bonus stays locked.

Expected house-edge cost is the average loss the house takes across your required wagering. Formula: total wagering × (1 − RTP). This is the "grind tax" — the amount you can expect to burn just by cycling money through the game.

Expected bonus value (EV) is the net take-home value of the bonus after grinding: bonus − expected house-edge cost. A negative EV means the bonus doesn't pay for the grind — you're paying to clear it. Positive EV means the bonus actually beats the house edge.

Break-even probability is a rough estimate of your odds of finishing wagering at or above the bonus value. It scales with the ratio of expected EV to volatility — low EV, high wagering, low RTP all drag this down.

The rule of thumb Anything with EV of +$0 or better is worth claiming (positive-value bonus). Anything with EV between $-50 and $0 is worth claiming only if you were going to play anyway. Anything with EV below $-50 is a bonus-eater — skip it, or verify the wagering isn't a typo before you commit.

Worked example: 100% up to $200 at 40x wagering

  1. Deposit $200, receive $200 bonus, total playable $400.
  2. Wagering: 40 × $200 = $8,000 in required bets.
  3. At 96% RTP: expected house cost = $8,000 × 4% = $320.
  4. EV = $200 bonus − $320 grind cost = $-120.
  5. Verdict: this bonus loses $120 on average. Only worth claiming if the RTP is higher (98%+ moves EV positive) or the wagering drops (25x or below moves EV positive).

Estimates are for planning only. Actual returns vary with variance, game contribution rules, and operator terms. Not gambling advice. 18+ only. If gambling stops being fun, get help at BeGambleAware.org or GamCare.org.uk.